Bookmaker is either a person or an organization that accepts people bets and pays them off too. These bookies can usually be found at horse racing events, but they also exist in other sports worlds such as soccer, NBA, greyhound racing, etc. They are the ones that set up the odds for every single race or match. They usually set them up to their favor to decrease the amount of money they might lose. But, how exactly accurate are they? Are they always right?
If you are someone who wants to enter the world of wagering, you are probably asking yourselves these exact questions. It seems like the odds that bookmakers place are correct almost every single time. Why would anyone bet against those odds when the chances to win are much higher?
Yeah, most of the time their speculation is accurate, but they are not always right. Their accuracy will also depend on a lot of different factors. For example, there might be a bookie that has a 99% chance of accurate speculation while another will have his/her accuracy under 50%.
To find out what are the reasons why bookmakers are not always right, make sure you keep reading.
It is a probability, not a prediction
Most people that have been part of the gambling world for more than a few years will always tell you that you should go with the bookie’s prediction. That is not good advice at all. Not just because the odds might be wrong, but because it is not a prediction. It is a fact about the probability of the outcome of the match or the race.
For example, if a certain dog has been in 20 races and has won all 20 of them, it means that the probability to win the next one is pretty high. This is why those odds exist. They tell you facts about the current situation of the match.
So, what does this mean? It basically means that any other dog can be the first to end the race, you simply cannot now. There will always be a better contender that will best the least favorite. Although, it is true that the chances of the other dog getting first place is higher.
A great example is the eNASCAR race that took several days ago. Bookmaker William Hill had set the odds to favor Byron by a huge margin. He was the only driver out of the bunch that managed to win a total of two times during this eNASCAR. Unfortunately, William Hill was wrong and Alex Bowman won the race while Byron ended up in sixth place.
This just shows how wrong even the most famous bookies can be. If you want to know more about this particular eNASCAR race, you can read more here.
Think of it as roulette. When the roulette wheel is spun and the ball lands on a certain number, let’s say 15, the odds that it will land on 15 are low, but it is still possible.
They are not always up-to-date
While a bookmaker’s job is always around sport, the contenders, and the teams, they simply cannot be familiar with every single bit of new information. Sure, tracking the biggest soccer teams such as Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Barcelona, etc. is easy. All of the information about their history of matches is public and easily obtainable.
However, information about teams that are in minor leagues is not as accessible. This means that the bookies cannot be always up to date about their previous matches, whether they are playing worse or better. They might be setting the odds on some outdated info.
So, if you are better prepared when gambling and if you learn more about the matches you are going to bet on, you just might be the one that is right.
This may be one of the biggest reasons why bookies are not always right and why you shouldn’t always rely on their probability calculations.
They quickly change odds
Another reason why bookies might not be as accurate as most people think is because they quickly tend to change the odds when new information comes in from their sources. Who knows whether that new data they received has been proven and whether it is reliable? For all you know, their sources might not be as believable.
These quick shifts from one side to the other shows just how unreliable the odds can be at times. Of course, this kind of occurrence is not as common, but it still does happen. It is something that everyone should be aware of.
Some copy the odds
The fact is that not every bookmaker is skilled enough to calculate the odds of certain matches, especially if they are complicated ones. Believe it or not, but a large number of bookies actually copy the odds from other bookmakers.
In other words, if one bookie makes the wrong decision, he/she pulls several dozen bookies down too. They all follow the wrong probability calculation. This is why always trusting the bookmaker is never a good idea.
The force risky bets
One of the ways bookmakers get to make profits out of betting is by pushing players to make as risky bets as possible. All of those risky bets seem to have lucrative awards to pull you in while your chances to win are much lower. It is important to remember that their entire goal is to make a profit out of this, not to help you win your bets.
Above are some of the reasons why bookmakers can be both right and very wrong at times. So, how can you use all of this information for your benefit? Well, it is all about making your own calculations and making a decision by yourself. You shouldn’t let calculations of a certain probability cause you to make the wrong wager. But, that does not mean that you shouldn’t use that calculation or information to your advantage. Bet safe and smart.